Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
