Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
